DM Markets Chart Pack Higher US corporate bond yields do not signal recession The performance of US corporate bonds since the end of November has been poor. For example, the average yield of seasoned issues rated Baa by Moody’s has increased nearly 10bp, extending its gain... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack How exposed are US Treasuries to tighter Fed policy? The broad-based strength of the last two US employment reports has seen investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy. Investors now expect the federal funds rate to rise at a faster pace than... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack What next for the US dollar? Over the past month, the US dollar’s performance against other “major” currencies has been mixed. It has fared poorly against those of the two major commodity exporters, Australia and Canada, which... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Is the Fed playing “catch-up” with the bond market? The federal funds rate is now expected to rise to less than 3% in a decade’s time, judging by the risk-neutral US Treasury yield curve. This rate remains well below the average projection of FOMC... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the dollar’s rebound to continue We think the widespread fall in the dollar against other major currencies in the wake of the “devaluation” of the Chinese renminbi was primarily a response to a shift in expectations for US monetary... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack How has the lower oil price affected US credit spreads? It is tempting to interpret the recent increase in the average spread of US corporate bonds over Treasuries as a sign that the economic recovery is faltering. However, the increase appears to have... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the euro remain resilient in the event of a Grexit? The resilience of the euro against the dollar to the deepening crisis in Greece – the exchange rate is currently close to its level at the end of May – has probably been due to a combination of... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Surge in German Bund yields unlikely to last Although the 10-year German Bund yield has risen significantly since late-April, we doubt it will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fresh euro weakness should buoy German equities Although it has still been one of the best-performing developed world stock markets this year, the DAX index has come off the boil over the past month. We do not expect its recent weakness to continue... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US corporate bonds should weather Fed tightening Although Fed tightening could dull investors’ appetite for risk, its onset has not tended to push up the spreads of US corporate bonds over Treasuries much in the past. We expect a similar outcome... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Swiss franc’s recent depreciation unlikely to last The Swiss franc has depreciated against the euro in the past month, despite the fact that the euro itself has weakened on a trade-weighted basis. This appears to be partly a correction following the... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally to shift from euro-zone to Japan Euro-zone equities have surged since the end of December, with the DAX up nearly 10%. The key driver of returns has been the anticipation and subsequent launch of the ECB’s quantitative easing... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Low oil price drives up US high-yield corporate spreads The spreads over Treasuries of US high-yield corporate bonds have risen further since the end of November, continuing their increase since the autumn. This has largely been driven by a rise in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasury yields set to rise as Fed tightens The yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen further over the past month. But we expect it to rise as the Fed tightens policy. Admittedly, during the last major tightening cycle in 2004-2006, it... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack After a wobble, US equities post another record high The S&P 500 has recovered from a major wobble in October and recently posted another record high. That being said, we don’t think the strong performance is likely to last. The value of the US stock... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US stock market running out of steam Since the end of August, the S&P 500 has fallen by about 2%. Although September’s US Employment Report was healthy, with the jobless rate falling below 6% for the first time in more than six years, a... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read