US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec. 2024) While the headline University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remains below its average over the first half of the year, the jump in December suggests that household spending growth is likely to... 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone growth outlook remains poor Data released today show that euro-zone household consumption rose strongly in Q3. But slowing real income growth means that we expect spending growth to be subdued in the coming quarters. Meanwhile... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Despite sluggish activity, RBA will only cut in May With Australian Q3 GDP data underperforming expectations, markets now think the RBA could begin its easing cycle as soon as April. To be sure, it is certainly the case that private demand showed few... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (October 2024) October’s decline in euro-zone retail sales followed a good third quarter for retailers. We suspect that the strength in sales in Q3 was just a one off and that growth will be subdued in the coming... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is strong services spending here to stay? We think that the shift in the shape of consumer spending over the past few years away from spending on goods towards spending on services is here to stay. While the recent strength in spending on... 5th December 2024 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q3 2024) GDP growth remained sluggish in the third quarter, adding to the case for the RBA to start easing policy before long. 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026 We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations... 3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 24) 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Oct. 2024) The 0.27% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in October was a little lower than we feared based on the earlier CPI and PPI data, but still confirms that prices rose at an above-target rate for the... 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) The strong increase in retail sales volumes in September confirms that they grew by around 5% annualised last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth picked up strongly. The October... 22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) The bigger-than-expected 0.7% m/m fall in retail sales in October (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m) suggests that households’ concerns about tax rises announced in the Budget on 30th October contributed... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 21st November 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) While October’s retail sales data showed underlying weakness and were accompanied by sizable revisions to previous months, the overall impact on consumption growth was modest. The bottom line is that... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
