Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s surpluses, consumer strength

Argentina’s government ran another bumper primary budget surplus in February, taking President Milei a step closer to his target of achieving a balanced overall budget this year. But while the latest...

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Retail Sales (Jan. 2024)

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Feb. 2024)

Unchanged retail sales volumes in February (CE forecast 0.0% m/m, consensus -0.4% m/m), as shoppers largely shrugged off the unusually wet weather, provided further evidence that a rebound in retail...

Canada Economics Weekly

Debt for another day

Households are offsetting the impact of high interest rates by paying down less of their debt. While that has helped the economy to avoid recession, it also suggests there will be less of a boost from...

China Economics Weekly

Equipment investment push may aggravate imbalances

Chinese policymakers want firms to increase equipment investment by 25% over the coming four years. If achieved, that would provide a temporary boost to domestic demand and GDP growth. But the lasting...

US Rapid Response

US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar. 2024)

The small fall the University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment in March is further evidence that the buoyant stock market alone will not prevent consumption growth from slowing.

US Rapid Response

US Retail Sales & PPI (Feb.)

The 0.6% m/m rebound in retail sales in February appears to reflect the unwinding of the drag on sales from the winter storms in early January, but the details suggest that the strength of consumers...

RBA Watch

RBA on course for rate cuts in August

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

The worst may be over for the Australian consumer

National accounts figures released this week showed that subdued household spending continued to weigh on the Australian economy in Q4. However, with a recovery in real disposable incomes taking shape...

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (January 2024)

January’s retail sales data are consistent with our view that the near-term outlook for consumption is poor.

Japan Economic Outlook

Negative rates will end but tightening cycle unlikely

The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at...

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q4 2023)

Although GDP growth last quarter was in line with what the RBA had expected, the Bank will take comfort from the fact that households continue to exercise spending restraint, while productivity...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Strong capex growth to ease capacity pressures

There are growing signs that restrictive policy settings are working to establish a more sustainable balance between demand and supply in the Australian economy. Indeed, inflation has continued to...

Japan Economics Weekly

BoJ will not be swayed by weak industrial output

We doubt that the slump in industrial output in January will prevent the Bank of Japan from ending negative rates over the coming months, but the recent string of disappointing data reinforces our...

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 24)