China Economics Update

Five-Year Plan aims to rebalance fiscal spending

The full proposals for China’s upcoming Five-Year Plan have just been published. These make it clear that fiscal policy will play a key role in the leadership’s efforts to lift the consumption-to-GDP...

28th October 2025 · 4 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Five-Year Plan teasers suggest rebalancing will be slow

Officials have pledged to significantly increase the consumption share of GDP. But the wider messaging on China’s upcoming Five-Year Plan suggests that efforts to further expand the supply-side of the...

24th October 2025 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2025)

The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in September was much better than expected (consensus forecast -0.2% m/m, CE -1.2% m/m) and meant sales rose for the fourth month in a row and by 0.9% q/q in...

24th October 2025 · 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Retail Sales (Aug. 2025)

The solid rebound in retail sales in August will not do much to spare the economy from a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the third quarter given the similar-sized fall in sales expected in...

23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

China's Five-Year Plan: Staying the course on industrial policy

China’s leadership has just wrapped up a closed-door meeting to discuss the upcoming Five-Year Plan. The message from the post-meeting communique is one of policy continuity, with technological...

23rd October 2025 · 3 mins read

China Rapid Response

China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2025)

Headline GDP growth fell to its lowest in a year last quarter. But we think the figures still overstate the pace of economic expansion by at least 1.0%-pts. The September activity data were mixed –...

20th October 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi: fiscal tightening to drive growth slowdown in 2026

The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP...

15th October 2025 · 3 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Little consumption upside from home refinancing uptick

The extent to which the recent drop in mortgage rates and flurry of home refinancing can boost consumption is limited, as most homeowners still hold pandemic-era sub-4% loans. While there is some...

10th October 2025 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Consumer Sentiment (Oct 2025)

Consumer sentiment edged down to a five-month low of 55.0 in October, from 55.1, as a cocktail of labour market weakness, above-target inflation and, potentially, the ongoing government shutdown...

10th October 2025 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Soft holiday data underscore weak consumption outlook

Retail sales growth slowed over the summer and there were no signs of a revival in consumer activity during the recent National Day holiday. With property prices still falling and the labour market...

10th October 2025 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBNZ’s easing cycle will be over by year-end

We were among the minority of analysts who correctly predicted that the RBNZ would slash its policy rate by 50bp this week and we still expect another 25bbp cut at its November meeting. However...

10th October 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Update

UK Car finance refunds slim compensation with tax rises coming

The possible £8.2bn of compensation for the mis-selling of car finance will be a nice windfall for some households. But it’s much smaller than the similar payments of £38.3bn in the 2010s and will...

8th October 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025)

The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI...

8th October 2025 · 1 min read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2025)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with...

8th October 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

PMIs: Gulf non-oil sectors end Q3 on a strong footing

Gulf non-oil sectors enjoyed a strong end to Q3 but Saudi Arabia’s recent Pre-Budget Statement for 2026 reinforced our view that non-oil growth in the Kingdom will slow over 2026-27. Elsewhere, Egypt...

6th October 2025 · 2 mins read