Commodities Watch “Food vs. Fuel” is back, but needn’t raise alarm Global food prices are at highs last reached in 2007-08 and 2011-12, when a sharp rise in global biofuel production sparked the “Food vs. Fuel” debate. In this Commodities Watch, we find that... 28th November 2022 · 8 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) OPEC’s monthly report for October showed a sharp drop in the group’s production, and further falls are likely if members are to abide by their new quotas from November. 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Watch Lessons from the spike in agriculture prices in 2007-12 The last time the prices of agricultural commodities rose as sharply as they have done in recent months was in the run up to the Global Financial Crisis and in 2011-12. During these times fears of... 31st May 2022 · 8 mins read
Commodities Watch Grain prices to stay historically high Grains prices have skyrocketed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine as fears of supply disruption have intensified and energy costs, which feed into agricultural production costs, have soared. In... 31st March 2022 · 8 mins read
Commodities Watch Commodity supply shortages set to ease in 2022 In this Commodities Watch, we take a closer look at commodity markets where supply shortages during the pandemic have been most severe and, consequently, where price increases have been most extreme... 21st December 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Watch Latest natural gas price surge will unwind At the time of writing, global natural gas prices are soaring. Dramatic moves in global natural gas prices are nothing new and not even very surprising given the extreme weather over the past year or... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Watch How the American Jobs Plan could affect commodities In this Commodities Watch, we take a first look at some of the most important features of President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure package, known as the American Jobs Plan, from a commodities... 14th May 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Watch Taking stock of China’s agricultural “buying spree” In this Commodities Watch, we consider the impact that the recent surge in Chinese agricultural commodity imports has had on prices and whether it will be sustained. In our view, the rapid growth in... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Watch Why we are not in a new commodity supercycle The latest rally in many commodity prices has prompted some commentators to herald the arrival of a new commodity supercycle. In this Commodities Watch, we outline what is meant by a supercycle and... 8th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Watch Chinese stimulus not enough to prompt a price rally China’s stimulus spending in 2009 in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) prompted a dramatic recovery in commodity prices. In this Commodities Watch, we discuss the stimulus plans outlined... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Commodities Watch OPEC springs a surprise Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Watch It can only get better for natural rubber In this Commodities Watch, we are initiating coverage of natural rubber. As it stands, supply is more than ample at a time of subdued demand. The vehicle and tyre sectors, the main end-users of... 25th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Commodities Watch The rally in US lumber looks hollow After falling sharply over the course of 2018, US lumber prices have rallied by roughly 20% since the start of June. In this Commodities Watch, we explain why we think prices will slide again by year... 12th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Commodities Watch What our new view on trade means for commodities We no longer expect the US and China to strike a deal on trade, and now forecast that the two countries’ dispute will escalate further. In this Commodities Watch, we lay out what our new view on trade... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Revisiting commodity price correlations Back in 2014, we examined explanations for the unusually high correlation seen between commodity and equity price moves during 2009-12. We concluded that while ultra-loose policy played a role, the... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch There may be trouble ahead … Since the start of 2019, commodity indices have increased at the same time as a host of asset classes, including US and emerging market equities. This Commodities Watch will explore whether this... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read