Commodities Outlook Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial... 24th March 2025 · 23 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Risks to EU carbon policy; China reforms renewables The EU’s climate policy announcements this week point to a shift in tone that suggests a lower willingness to impose costs on private firms. That poses a growing risk to the future of the bloc’s... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update A nuanced take on renewable rollout outperformance On the face of it, the fact that the world is installing more renewable electricity generating capacity than seemed likely just a few years ago is encouraging for the green transition. That said, one... 13th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Outlook Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of... 13th December 2024 · 23 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Draghi on green policies; UK farewell to coal power Mario Draghi’s report on EU competitiveness, published this month, provided food for thought on the EU’s decarbonisation strategy. Meanwhile, with the imminent closure of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar coal... 30th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update New China stimulus won’t lift commodity demand While the announcement of new stimulus measures by Chinese officials coincided with increases in many commodity prices, the package does not materially alter the outlook for China’s commodity demand... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in... 24th September 2024 · 24 mins read
Commodities Update Weaker demand for coal set to cool prices in 2025 The imminent closure of the UK’s last coal power plant is a further reminder that thermal coal’s days in Europe are numbered. In Asia, coal will remain a major source of power for many years to come... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Focus Will India kickstart the next commodity boom? With a large and growing population and a bright long-term economic outlook, the stage is set for India’s commodity demand to boom. However, there are several reasons why India won’t have the same... 10th September 2024 · 11 mins read
Commodities Outlook Commodity prices to fall back We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to... 27th June 2024 · 21 mins read
Climate Economics Update Emissions in China are close to a turning point China’s rapid uptake of clean power means that it is on track to overachieve on its target of reaching peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. That said, the pace of decline will be slow at first... 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Energy Update The timelines and trajectories of peak fossil fuel demand The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (June 2024) Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. OPEC+’s decision to roll over its production cuts into Q3 will keep supply... 6th June 2024 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Energy Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The agreement by OPEC+ to rollover voluntary production cuts into Q3 will keep global oil supply... 5th June 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ to roll-over?; China commodity imports up With less than a month to go until OPEC+ meets to decide upon its next policy move, rumours are heating up as to what its move will be. Last week, anonymous OPEC+ sources suggested that the 2.2... 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
