Why our house price forecast is bottom of the pack

Our forecast for a rise in house prices of 2% in 2019 is close to the bottom of consensus. That view is supported by evidence that housing market conditions have loosened, and that the size of mortgage applications for home purchase have started to shrink. Falling house price expectations will keep home sales subdued this year, and we see no reason to up our forecast towards consensus at this time.

Subscriber content

Read this in full, free

Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.


Free. 10 articles. No card required.
By completing this form you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions for the provision of a free trial of Capital Economics' services. We take your privacy seriously and will not share your details with others without your consent. By providing your details, including your email address, you are consenting to Capital Economics sending you macroeconomic commentary and analysis. You can unsubscribe at any time. See our Privacy Policy for more information.

Already a client or trialist? Log in to read this.