Did the US recovery just die without warning?

We still believe that the unseasonably cold winter in the Northeast together with some strange seasonal quirks can explain a lot of the weakness in first-quarter GDP growth. It is true that the contraction in the shale oil industry was also a factor, and that will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second quarter too. But beyond that it should provide a small boost to GDP growth in the second half of this year.

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