Lost summer holiday season won’t delay GDP rebound

The possibility that international travel restrictions could remain in place this summer implies that the rapid vaccine rollout in the UK won’t be enough to ensure a swift return to normality for the hard-hit tourism sector. But this is unlikely to delay the rapid recovery in the overall economy we expect in the second half of 2021. Meanwhile, the economy’s recent performance suggests that the hole the economy needs to climb out of isn’t as large as many had anticipated.