IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Nov.)

The softening in the all-sector PMI in November suggests that GDP growth has slowed sharply in Q4 from Q3’s 0.3% q/q rise and has perhaps even turned negative. But we think that the PMIs are overstating the gloom. Even so, it is clear that the risks to our forecast of a 0.2% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 lie on the downside.

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