Higher Sweden forecast, Denmark’s "Hamlet" moment

The Swedish economy has proved remarkably resilient at the start of 2021, having surpassed its pre-virus level in March and surveys suggesting that it is powering ahead in Q2. Against this backdrop, we have lifted our forecast for 2021 and now expect the economy to grow faster than the Riksbank and the consensus. Next week, the release of GDP data from Norway will confirm that mainland GDP contracted in Q1 (we estimate by 0.5% q/q), while CPI inflation data from Sweden will show that energy effects pushed the headline rate above target for the first time since May 2019.