Our latest monthly review of the key data has made us a little more cautious about the prospects for the Japanese economy, despite the upward revisions to first quarter GDP. We still expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates shortly and by more in total than the markets are currently anticipating, based on the outlook for inflation. However, this simply reinforces our view that latecomers to the party are likely to be disappointed: Japan’s economic recovery is now a good three years old and looking increasingly mature.
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