Inflation concerns suggest Singapore dollar to rise further

The upward revisions to Singapore’s Q3 GDP figures, published today, were small. The data will stay wild for some time yet and the economy will expand at a far slower pace in 2011 than will be the case this year. Nevertheless, the upswing will continue and, we judge, will almost certainly settle around Singapore’s trend pace of growth. The challenge for the authorities now is to contain inflation. Accordingly, the Singapore dollar (SGD) should appreciate further and we are comfortable having an end-2011 forecast against the US dollar which is far more bullish on the SGD than the consensus.