A look ahead to Japan’s Q2 GDP data

The first estimate of Japan’s second quarter GDP will be released, not very auspiciously, on the 13th (next Wednesday). We expect this to show an outright fall of around 0.3% q/q, although a much bigger decline would not be a huge surprise after the suspiciously strong increase of 1.0% in Q1. Whatever the precise numbers, we continue to expect Japan’s downturn to be relatively shallow and short-lived.

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