Renminbi set to rise again against dollar, but slowly (Apr 10)

The US Treasury’s decision to delay release of the semi-annual currency report in which it names “currency manipulators” among major trading partners has had a negligible impact on market expectations of renminbi appreciation. The nondeliverable forwards market is pricing in a 1% gain against the dollar over the next three months and 3% over 12 months. We still think policymakers are likely to wait a few weeks until, say, June, for more clarity about the strength of the economy (recent data have been distorted by Chinese New Year) before loosening the dollar peg. More important though, when it does rise, the renminbi will move slowly. We forecast an end-2010 rate of 6.60/$ and end-2011 of 6.20 compared with 6.83 today.