China confirms policy continuity for 2010 (Dec 09)

The annual Economic Work Conference broke up today with the expected commitment from China’s leaders to keep supportive monetary and fiscal policy in place while managing inflation expectations. Concerns about the sustainability of the recovery still seem high. At the same time, there was a pledge to focus on restructuring the economy and balancing trade, but it is not clear what this might mean in practice. With exports now picking up and signs that stockpiling-driven commodity imports are easing, the trade surplus is rising. The government said it would continue with the trade-in and subsidy schemes that have supported consumption this year. But continued rapid growth in manufacturing investment guarantees that China will also be seeking to expand exports for a long time to come. The trade surplus is unlikely to decline very rapidly.