China Activity Proxy signals much weaker growth than official GDP data
Could China’s economy rebound in 2025, or will mounting headwinds deepen the slowdown and widen the gap between official data and reality?
Despite the government's claim that China’s economy grew at target in 2024, our proprietary China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the pace of activity weakened, and the outlook for this year is deteriorating. While official GDP figures paint an optimistic picture, the CAP tells a very different story—one of weaker-than-expected growth and mounting structural headwinds.
In this report, we break down what’s really happening in the economy and why we’re revising down our 2025 growth forecast, including:
- Why China’s economy grew well below the official claim of 5.0%;
- How fiscal stimulus propped up activity in December—but why it won’t last;
- Why rising trade barriers and weak domestic demand could further drag on growth in 2025.
Get a clear picture of China’s economic trajectory—read our report now.
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China Activity Proxy
Capital Economics' independent economic indicator that provides global investors and businesses with a clear, timely, and data-driven view of China’s economic activity, free from reliance on official statistics.