China Economics Update China's targeted stimulus not enough, fiscal push remains key China’s latest stimulus package eschews broad-based easing in favour of targeted measures to support housing demand and bank lending to specific sectors. It is unlikely to have a big impact on its own... 30th September 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update US-China tariff tweaks don’t change the bigger picture The US and China have announced significant tariff cuts on goods covered by the new bilateral Board of Trade. But the scheme only covers “non-sensitive” goods that make up a small share of China’s... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Poor returns from China’s assets are structural, not cyclical Despite China’s apparently robust economic growth over the past decade, the returns from its stock market have been poor and its bond yields are very low. We think the next decade will be similarly... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s appetite for oil has reached a fork in the road With the conflict in the Middle East constraining OPEC’s influence on oil supply, changes in Chinese oil demand have become the “swing” factor in the global oil market. China probably could cut back... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s labour market is not as weak as it looks Headline employment data are giving an overly weak impression of China’s labour market. Our Labour Market Indicator points to still-firm cyclical conditions, while a structural shift in labour demand... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Presales overhaul won’t revive the housing market The recent overhaul of China’s housing presales system belatedly addresses some of the vulnerabilities that contributed to the country’s property downturn. But the changes only apply to new projects... 1st September 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Transhipment crackdown not a big threat to China’s exports We agree with the White House’s assessment that China’s indirect exports to the US have risen sharply since US tariffs first came into force. But it remains unclear how much of this is illegal... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Deflationary pressures loom again The m/m declines in both consumer and producer prices in July largely reflect the pullback in global oil prices. But falling prices also underscore that domestic deflationary pressures remain... 10th August 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update The renminbi could not rebalance China on its own A significant appreciation of the renminbi would narrow China’s enormous trade surplus but it would also make the domestic deflation problem worse. This trade-off can only be addressed if a stronger... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Profit pick-up doesn’t signal overcapacity being resolved The recent pick-up in industrial profit growth is not a sign that excess capacity in China’s manufacturing sector is being meaningfully resolved. Strong profit growth is concentrated in a few sectors... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update AI is lifting Asia’s non-chip manufacturers too The global AI investment boom is delivering a bonanza to electronics manufacturers across Asia well beyond just chipmakers in Korea and Taiwan. 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China can’t bail out the global oil market forever The sharp reduction in China’s crude imports has been a key factor keeping a lid on global oil prices, and we suspect that it can sustain historically low imports for many more months. However, this... 23rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update AI is now the main driver of China’s growth While headline growth disappointed, the detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data points to a sharp upswing in activity linked to the AI boom. On a q/q basis, over half of last quarter’s expansion... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
