Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Brazil’s central bank stepped up the pace of tightening with a larger-than-expected 100bp hike, to 12.25%, to the Selic rate and made clear that there will be at least two more 100bp increases, to 14... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank to revert to 25bp cuts Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, its communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further cuts are... 11th December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to continue with gradual policy normalisation We expect the Fed to cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and to continue projecting that the fed funds rate will eventually end up close... 11th December 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec. 2024) Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, the accompanying communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will only cut interest rates in May The RBA sounded more dovish today and it’s looking increasingly likely that it will lower interest rates sooner rather than later. While a downside surprise in Q4 inflation could trigger a February... 10th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 2024) 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to cut by 25bp and state further cuts to come In contrast to market pricing, we think that the SNB will be cautious and cut its policy rate by just 25bps, to 0.75%, next week as the Bank sticks to a gradual approach to loosening monetary policy... 5th December 2024 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch “Dovish” 25bp rate cut likely next week While there is a strong case for the ECB to accelerate the pace of policy easing by delivering a 50bp cut next week, a majority of the Governing Council seems to prefer 25bp, which would bring the... 5th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to revert to a 25bp cut Although the recent GDP data disappointed, there are green shoots emerging, with signs of stabilisation in the labour market and the key business surveys picking up. As core inflation has also... 4th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and a rise in inflation over the coming months means that the monetary easing cycle won’t resume until the middle... 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will wait until May before cutting rates The RBA will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on 10 th December. While the weakness in economic activity points to rate cuts before long, we think the Bank will need to see... 4th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth, inflation and fiscal policy Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of... 29th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (November 2024) The RBNZ didn’t provide a clear signal about the speed of future rate cuts when it lowered the overnight cash rates by 50bp today, but we think it will deliver another 50bp cut at its February meeting 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revised bond yield forecasts, Trump and the SNB Our new bond yield forecasts show US and German bond yields diverging slightly over the coming year as monetary policy is loosened more aggressively in Europe. Meanwhile, we think a universal US... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
