Japan Rapid Response

Bank of Japan Meeting (Mar. 23)

The Bank of Japan ended ultra-loose monetary policy today but we don’t think it will raise its policy rate any further.

Japan Economics Weekly

Shunto tide should lift wage growth among small firms

This year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in the largest pay hikes since 1991 and we estimate that participating workers will receive a base pay hike of around 3.5%. While it’s mostly the large...

Europe Economics Update

SNB to lead the G10 central banks in rate cuts

Inflation in Switzerland has surprised most other forecasters, including the SNB, this year by falling to just 1.2% in February, which was the ninth month in a row that it has been below 2%. We think...

BoE Watch

Sounding hawkish, but data may soon change the BoE’s tune

At the policy meeting on Thursday 21st March, the Bank of England will almost certainly keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth time in a row and retain its hawkish guidance. But we...

US Fed Watch

Better inflation data needed for June rate cut

Data dependence will remain the order of the day at next week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed officials likely to leave their interest rate projections broadly unchanged and signal that they are still...

Bank of Japan Watch

Negative rates and YCC will end this month

With this year’s Shunto resulting in larger pay hikes than anyone had anticipated, we now expect the Bank of Japan to end both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting...

RBA Watch

RBA on course for rate cuts in August

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably...

Canada Economics Update

Bank gives little away

The Bank of Canada gave little away about the potential timing of interest rate cuts today, although its communications suggest that it is gaining a bit more confidence that inflation is moving in the...

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF

The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is...

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Mar. 2024)

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and the scope for monetary easing this year looks relatively limited. We still think there is a possibility that a...

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Interest Rate Hike & Devaluation

The announcement minutes ago from the Central Bank of Egypt that it has devalued the pound and hiked interest rates by a bumper 600bp, to 27.25%, shows that policymakers are committed to the turn back...

Japan Economic Outlook

Negative rates will end but tightening cycle unlikely

The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at...

Bank of Canada Watch

Bank continues to wait and see

The Bank will be relieved to see the broad-based easing in core inflation in January, but is still likely to use its policy statement and press conference next week to emphasise the need for patience...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ’s tightening bias is on borrowed time

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand handed down another hawkish hold at its meeting today. However, with inflation on track to return to its 1-3% target by mid-year, we still expect the Bank to start...