Europe Economics Weekly Christine Lagarde’s wishful thinking on AI This week’s inflation data and ECB decision were in line with expectations. In this Weekly we take a look at Christine Lagarde’s claim that there is a significant AI-related pick-up in investment in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to follow up this week’s 25bp hike with additional policy tightening in the months ahead. Indeed, with growth set to accelerate further above potential this... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb. 26) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) left interest rates unchanged at 7.00% as expected today, and its communications suggested that this marked a pause, not the end of the easing cycle. But the overall... 5th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for several more months While the ECB left rates on hold today and put a positive spin on the outlook for the economy, we think its next move is likely be a rate cut, albeit not until much later in the year. 5th February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Dovish BoE supports our view that rates will be cut to 3.00% While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today, as widely expected, the Bank of England sounded more dovish than we anticipated. This this supports our long-held view that interest rates will be reduced... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The decision by the Czech National Bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, was widely expected, but a dovish shift seems likely in the post-meeting communications. The risks to our... 5th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (5th Feb. 2026) While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today (as widely expected), the Bank of England sounded more dovish than we expected, which supports our long-held view that interest rates will be reduced to 3... 5th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.00%, is likely to be followed by an interest rate cut at the next meeting in March. But the easing cycle is... 4th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will hike rates to 4.35% The recent pick-up in economic activity and inflation suggests that the neutral rate of interest may now be closer to 4% instead of the RBA’s estimate of around 3.5%. Given that the RBA believes that... 4th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA raises rates, leaves door ajar for further hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia struck an unambiguously hawkish tone when it raised rates by 25bp at its meeting today. Our base case is that the Bank will deliver only one more 25bp hike this year, but... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Feb. 2026) The RBA continued to sound concerned about rising capacity pressures when it lifted its cash rate by 25bp today. There is a growing risk that rates will need to be taken above the 4.10% peak we have... 3rd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 26) Colombia’s central bank delivered a larger-than-expected 100bp interest rate hike, to 10.25%, at today’s meeting and the hiking cycle has further to run as policymakers try to get ahead of the... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to leave policy unchanged again Nobody is expecting the ECB to change its policy stance or written guidance next week so the focus will be on the press conference. Christine Lagarde will be asked about the recent tariff threats... 29th January 2026 · 7 mins read
BoE Watch BoE’s wage worries to cement slower pace of rate cuts While leaving interest rates at 3.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 5th February, the Bank of England will probably hint that the next rate cut isn’t imminent and imply that rates may not fall... 29th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 2026) Brazil’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 15.00% as expected but the communications struck a much more dovish tone, suggesting that the first interest rate cut will be delivered at the next... 28th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed sticks to loosening bias despite stronger activity data The change to the FOMC’s policy statement, acknowledging the recent solid pace of GDP growth and stabilisation in the unemployment rate, is another sign that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
