Emerging Asia Rapid Response Singapore Central Bank Policy Meeting (July) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy unchanged today, but we think today’s marginally dovish statement raises the likelihood of monetary easing in October. 26th July 2024 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch It’s close, but BoE to keep rates on hold for a little longer While it will be a very close call, the economy’s recent strength and the stickiness of services inflation leads us to think that the Bank of England will wait until its September meeting to cut... 25th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loosening cycle continues, September cut looks likely Alongside its decision to cut interest rates today, the Bank of Canada struck a more dovish tone than in June, supporting our forecast that another cut is coming at the next meeting in September. 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed warming up to a September rate cut With the disinflationary trend broadening out and the unemployment rate rising, recent comments from Fed officials suggest that the FOMC is on track to cut interest rates in September. While the... 24th July 2024 · 9 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will lift rates to 0.5% by year-end At its upcoming meeting, we expect the Bank of Japan to announce a reduction in its monthly bond purchases to ¥2tn over the next couple of years, with an initial reduction to ¥5tn. And we expect the... 24th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut interest rates by 25bp again today, to 6.75%, and the post-meeting press conference suggests that, while there are some MPC members who want to pause the easing... 23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Services inflation still sticky, little Olympic cheer The full breakdown of the euro-zone’s June inflation data suggests that the recent stickiness of services inflation has not just been due to Taylor Swift’s concerts. An ECB rate cut in September still... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Korea: contraction in Q2, weak H2 Second quarter GDP figures for Korea, due to be published next week, are likely to show the economy contracted last quarter. Growth in the second half of the year is also likely to struggle, with weak... 19th July 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in the Union Budget The full Union Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on Tuesday - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. It will also give an... 19th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update September cut likely but ECB in no rush after that Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates were in line with expectations. The overall tone was arguably slightly dovish... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2024) Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates was in line with expectations. A cut in September still seems more likely than not... 18th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank set for another rate cut Despite stronger core price pressures in May and June, the totality of the data is still supportive of another interest rate cut next week. With GDP growth below potential and shelter inflation now... 17th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Policy Rate (July 2024) Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut in Q4. Today’s decision was correctly predicted by all... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read