Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes now the “base case” In light of this week’s further rise in energy prices and damage to Qatar’s energy infrastructure we have revised our euro-zone forecasts. In our new “base case” the ECB hikes rates three times this... 20th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising chance of ECB hikes in first half of the year Before ECB policymakers react to the rise in energy prices, they will wait for more clarity on the size and duration of the shock. There would be no need for a response if energy prices dropped back... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank of England leaning a bit more towards rate hikes rather than cuts While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today as widely expected, the Bank of England suggested it is more concerned about the upsides to inflation from the leap in energy prices triggered by the... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (March 2026) The ECB’s press release and updated forecasts suggest that policymakers think that the inflationary effects of higher energy prices will outweigh the disinflationary effects of weaker economic growth... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Mar. 2026) While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today as widely expected, the Bank of England suggested it is more concerned about the upsides to inflation from the leap in energy prices triggered by the... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals willingness to hike rates again soon A slim majority of BoJ Board members believe that the conflict in the Middle East will on balance strengthen inflationary pressures in Japan. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Limited changes from the FOMC as it waits for more clarity The FOMC’s statement and dot plot today were arguably not as hawkish as many speculated, with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) still pointing to one interest rate cut this year, despite an... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Mar 2026) The FOMC’s statement and dot plot today were arguably not as hawkish as many speculated, with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) still pointing to one interest rate cut this year, despite an... 18th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank cautiously pushes back against rate hike expectations The Bank of Canada sounded marginally dovish while keeping its key policy rate at 2.25% today, stating that the growth outlook had worsened and downplaying the risks of second-round effects from... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Mar 2026) The Bank of Canada sounded marginally dovish while keeping its key policy rate at 2.25% today, stating that the growth outlook had worsened and that it would look through the Iran war’s immediate... 18th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting today and, while officials seemed sanguine about inflation risks, they are clearly concerned about the renewed... 17th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will hike rates again in May Although the RBA’s decision to raise rates at its meeting today was made by the narrowest of margins, the split vote primarily reflected differences regarding the timing of the move rather than the... 17th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (March 2026) Amid concerns that the ongoing energy price spike will adversely affect the inflation outlook, the RBA raised rates by 25bp at its meeting today. However, the decision was made by the narrowest of... 17th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hauser’s hawkishness heralds a hike In a podcast this week, RBA Deputy Governor made no bones about his view that the Bank needed to bolster its inflation-fighting credentials. His concerns that the Iran conflict could exacerbate price... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada to stand pat amid oil market turmoil The Bank of Canada is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week and will likely play down the risk that higher oil prices might warrant interest rate hikes. Nonetheless, if WTI... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
