UK Economics Update BoE ready to raise rates, but not as far as investors fear We have revised up our Bank of England forecasts and now expect interest rates to be raised from 3.75% to 4.00% at the next policy meeting in November and to 4.25% in February. Our previous forecast... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (17th Sep. 2026) For more detailed and up to date analysis, see here. The Bank of England left interest rates at 3.75% today and announced that it will reduce its holding of gilts by £368bn over the next eight years... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) Brazil’s central bank (BCB) delivered another 25bp interest rate cut today, to 13.75%, but the absence of hawkish surprises challenges the consensus view that today’s meeting would deliver the last... 16th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update SEP suggests only limited appetite for further Fed hikes The Fed’s interest rate hike today is likely to be followed by at least one more later this year, probably in December. While the new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) implies that the Fed may be... 16th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Sep 2026) The Fed appears to be on board with our view that its hike today will be followed by one more later this year. While the latest Summary of Economic Projections implies that the Fed may be content with... 16th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed set to hike next week and by 75bp in total The firm August price data means we are reinstating our prior forecast that the Fed will hike this month and by 75bp in total. That would take the fed funds target range to between 4.25% and 4.50%. 11th September 2026 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Thoughts on a jam-packed week for monetary policy A busy week for monetary policy highlighted the growing divergence among the region's central banks. On the more dovish side, Poland’s appears in no rush to shift to interest rate hikes, while we... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German political uncertainty rising; ECB to hike again The strong showing of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany's state elections is likely to reinforce the difficulties that the federal government faces in implementing reforms and containing... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ set to accelerate its tightening cycle The Bank of Japan will accelerate its tightening cycle with a hike to 1.25% at its upcoming meeting. With the Bank increasingly concerned about upside risks to inflation, we now expect the Bank to... 11th September 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will hike again, but will be cutting next year There was no surprise at today’s rate hike by the ECB, but the Bank’s forecast revisions and President Lagarde’s remarks in the press conference suggest that policymakers are minded to raise rates... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch Holding while others hike Even though the ECB has raised interest rates again and the Fed appears close to a hike, we are not expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its meeting on Thursday 17th September, or... 10th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What should the ECB make of the bond sell-off? The ECB is unlikely to be overly concerned by the recent sell-off in bond markets, not least because spreads generally remain low and are not rising rapidly. On Monday, euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Central Bank Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank of England September meetings 17th September 2026, 3:00PM BST On Thursday 17th September, our senior economists from our US, Europe and UK teams, dived into the latest decisions and communications from these leading monetary authorities.
ECB Watch ECB to hike again, growing chance of more to come The ECB Governing Council looks certain to raise its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% next week. Further ahead, the outlook is becoming harder to call given the recent rise in energy prices. We are not... 3rd September 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s hawkish message brings 2026 hike into play The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish message today, saying “the upside risks to inflation have increased” and that it is “prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed”. We do not view this as a... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep. 2026) The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish message alongside its policy rate announcement today, noting that “the upside risks to inflation have increased” and it is “prepared to adjust monetary... 2nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
