Two of the three topics we expect to dominate the global macroeconomic debate in 2023 – falling inflation and future monetary policy loosening – are now largely priced into markets in the US. The...

We suspect investors are underestimating how disruptive the transition from zero-COVID will prove for China, which could threaten some of the recent rises in the country’s equity prices, bond yields...

Although US corporate bond spreads have been falling since mid-October, we expect them to rise again before long as the global economy slips into recession.

We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to decline only a little further as US inflation continues to ease.