We now think that the 10-year US Treasury yield will rise by about 100bp in 2017. Nonetheless, unlike previous occassions when it has risen sharply, we doubt that it will lead to a crisis in emerging...

After staging a decent recovery this year, almost all EM currencies have weakened against the US dollar so far this month. Some may weaken a little further, but we think a large sell-off is unlikely.

While we continue to expect the FOMC to hike the federal funds rate by 25bp at least twice this year, two such increases are currently anticipated by investors in the bond market . We are therefore...

The recovery in oil prices has now taken Brent above our end-2016 forecast of $45 per barrel. We would not be surprised to see the rally pause for breath soon, but remain comfortable with our view...