The trends in the opinion polls and in bookmakers’ odds suggest that a UK vote to leave the EU (“ Brexit ”) would now be a major surprise. Given this, the initial uncertainty caused by Brexit would...

Is the stock market in the US overvalued or undervalued relative to its counterpart in Europe? The answer largely depends on which metric is chosen and how earnings evolve.

Our central forecast is that US interest rates will be raised twice this year, probably in September and December, but we suspect that the chances of a hike on 15th June are rather higher than the 30%...

US Treasury yields continue to be depressed by other forces besides the expectation that the federal funds rate will remain very low in the future. Some of these forces are likely to persist over the...