Although we expect the FOMC to loosen policy substantially by the spring of 2020, we are not forecasting a renewed decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to below 2%. This is because we think that the...

Investors seem as pessimistic about the US-China trade war now as they have ever been. Indeed, it would probably come as little surprise to markets if the two sides imposed tariffs on virtually all...

Donald Trump’s assertion on Twitter yesterday that a “way too high” Fed interest rate was responsible for a “devalued” euro and other currencies against the dollar is wrong, at least when it comes to...

Although the US dollar has pulled back over the past fortnight, we expect it to strengthen once more against most major currencies in the second half of this year as the global economy slows.