The surge in immigration and improvement in labour supply has helped ease wage growth moderately. But, with limited scope for a further rapid recovery in the labour force, we think a sustained period...

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4% this week, as markets interpreted the minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting as hawkish and reacted to signs that, although labour market conditions may...

The fall in job openings in May suggests that labour shortages continue to ease, although the rebound in the job quits rate implies that wage growth is set to slow only gradually.

The apparent weakness of consumption growth and slowdown in core inflation in the second quarter leave us a bit more confident in our view that the Fed’s next rate hike will prove to be the last.