The Fed is almost certain to hike its policy rate by 25bp to between 5.25% and 5.50% at next week’s FOMC meeting, but we increasingly believe that will prove to be the peak. Despite the ‘higher for...

The resurgence in female prime-age participation to a record high is helping to support labour force growth, but the recent rapid pace of improvement is likely to fade soon.

The news that core CPI increased by a muted 0.16% m/m in June, which is less than 2% in annualised terms, has raised hopes that the Fed’s planned rate hike this month will be the last in this cycle...

The resilience of consumption over the past year is partly because households have been willing to save less of their income than before the pandemic, which lends some support to the idea that...