The latest noises from Washington suggest that politicians are close to reaching a compromise on a deal that will raise the debt ceiling ahead of Tuesday night, thereby preventing a debt default and a...

We still think that the US government is unlikely to default on its debt. But if it did, the implications would potentially be far more serious than those that would follow a one or two notch...

Our calculations suggest that GDP growth accelerated a little to 2.3% annualised in the second quarter, from 1.9% in the first, despite the fact that consumption growth apparently slowed to less than...

A downgrade of US government debt would not necessarily be disastrous for Treasuries or the dollar, at least once the dust settled. However, it would be the starkest warning yet that the fall-out from...