The June data released this week showed that, while tariff effects are crystallising in particular industries, broader impacts have so far been avoided. But with pre-tariff inventory stockpiles...

The market reaction yesterday provided a taste of what might be to come if President Trump followed through his threat to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with the dollar, equities and short rates likely...

The pace of the increase in continuing jobless claims would have to accelerate significantly to present a risk to our forecast that the unemployment rate will only edge higher this year.

President Donald Trump has turned his attention back to trade policy in recent days, threatening to resurrect higher reciprocal tariffs on many countries in another few weeks. He has also indicated...