The speed and scale of China’s retaliation to the proposed US tariffs represents a significant escalation of tensions, though there is still plenty of time for a deal to be struck before tariffs come...

Although the annual core PCE inflation rate only edged higher to 1.6% in February there is now a good chance that base effects will push it up to 2.0% in March, leaving it in line with the Fed’s...

The incoming activity data suggest that GDP growth slowed from an upwardly-revised 2.9% annualised in the fourth quarter to 2.0% or so in the first quarter. That would still be slightly above the...

The gradual contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet is now starting to weigh on the monetary aggregates. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect bank lending growth to rebound soon.