We learned this week that core PCE inflation reached 1.9% in March, within a whisker of the Fed’s 2% target, and we think it has further to rise over the rest of this year. We expect a gradual pick-up...

The Fed was never likely to signal a major shift in policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at 1.5% to 1.75% and the accompanying statement...

The reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet continued to weigh on the narrow monetary aggregates in March, but this is unlikely to prove a major drag on the economy. Our measure of M3 shows that broad...

The rebound in core PCE inflation over recent months in part reflects sharp increases in administered payments for hospital services that will be repeated later this year. A revival in healthcare...