The November NFIB survey suggests that the labour market is regaining momentum, while also pointing to some upside risks to inflation. At the margin at least, that lends some support to our view that...

While the latest data show the manufacturing sector struggling as a whole, the patchwork nature of the tariff system means some industries are faring better than others. This divergence could be...

The outlook for fed policy next year will depend not only on the economic outlook, but also whether a new Trump-appointed Fed Chair, from May, can convince his colleagues that rates should be cut...

The minutes of the October FOMC meeting were unusually blunt, warning that “many” Fed participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year. Nevertheless, the...