Despite the rebound in JOLTS job openings in December, voluntary quits fell slightly and point to a further moderation in both wage growth and PCE core services (ex housing) inflation.

Our tracking models now suggest the economy is more likely than not to be in recession in three months’ time, supporting the message from the latest surveys and hard activity data that GDP is likely...

It’s well known that, with the yield curve inverting the Fed is now racking up losses, but what is less appreciated is that the higher interest payments it is making are going mostly to foreign banks...

Commentators were quick to dismiss the latest decline in the leading indicators index, which left it pointing unambiguously to a recession. But despite the apparent resilience of fourth-quarter GDP...