We think France’s government borrowing costs will rise above those of Italy before long. This may seem surprising in light of Italy’s higher debt burden and lower trend growth rate, but it reflects...

While trade and overcapacity related risks remain, we see a bright outlook for China’s equities. But we expect a more challenging path for its bonds and currency over the remainder of the year.

While the interest-rate-differential-defying strength of EUR/USD may be partly explained by increased currency hedging, it also reflects shifting expectations for economic growth. We think those will...

We think Trump’s tariffs will cause real goods trade to fall by around 1% in the next two years, both by introducing frictions into the trading system and by causing global demand to weaken. But a lot...