The median FOMC projection now shows only one 25bp rate cut this year, but it was a relatively close run thing. Four officials expect no cut this year, a further seven anticipate one cut, while the...

We don’t think that the below-potential GDP growth implied by the recent activity data is a cause for concern yet, particularly while the labour market appears healthy. That will keep the Fed squarely...

The April JOLTS data provided further evidence of normalisation, with job openings falling further, layoffs still at historically low levels and the leading indicators all pointing to wage growth...

We doubt that Donald Trump’s New York felony conviction on charges of falsifying business documents will have any significant impact on the presidential election campaign.