The latest projections from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office show that, despite recent efforts to control spending and boost revenues, the Federal budget deficit will remain close to 4% of...

The expiry of the payroll tax cut will contribute to what could be a 3.5% m/m slump in personal disposable income in January. We expect any decline in real consumption to be pretty modest, however...

The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) reveals an encouraging bounce back in demand for business loans, which suggests that investment growth could accelerate over the first half of this...

Consumer confidence may be as much as 20 points lower than otherwise due to the effects of the payroll tax hike. But as long as employment continues to rise, gasoline prices don’t increase too much...