The magnitude and duration of the slump in oil prices has far exceeded what we originally expected and the longer it persists, the harder it is to argue that decline will ever be a net positive for...

The latest incoming monthly data suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to between 1.0% and 1.5% annualised. Added to the widening in corporate credit spreads, the renewed weakness in stock...

The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 4.6% in November, but M2 growth was still a very healthy 6.2% and, most importantly, the growth rate of bank loans is running at 8.0%.

If 2015 was the year when interest rates didn’t rise as rapidly as most originally expected, then 2016 is likely to be the opposite, with a bigger than expected rebound in inflation forcing the Fed to...