The slowdown in real consumption growth to a more modest 2.0% annualised in the final quarter of last year was a disappointment, particularly as households were benefitting from a further decline in...

The dollar’s near 20% rise since mid-2014 has slowed the growth rates of both manufacturing output and employment, but there is no sign of any collapse that could drag down the wider economy. The...

Although a number of other central banks have now adopted negative policy rates, the chances of the Fed following suit are pretty small. Even if US economic conditions deteriorated, we suspect that...

Futures markets now expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged for all of this year and anticipate a single 25 basis point hike next year. In contrast, we expect the Fed to begin raising rates again in...