The better-than-expected 263,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment suggests it’s still the best of times in the labour market but, digging below the surface, there are worrying signs that it could...

With weaker growth overseas and the drag from the stronger dollar now pushing exports lower, the resilience of consumption is the only thing keeping the economy from falling into recession.

The further falls in job openings and voluntary quits in October indicate that labour market conditions are continuing to ease gradually, which should keep downward pressure on wage growth.

As the economy slides into a mild recession in the first half of next year, triggering a rebound in the unemployment rate to almost 5% by end-2023, the resulting slowdown in the growth rates of wages...