In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at...

The marked increase in inflation across advanced economies has yet to cause real spending to contract, but the widespread decline in consumer sentiment and hiring intentions points to worse to come...

Governments in developed economies have so far been circumspect in providing fiscal support to households to cushion the impact of higher energy prices. This is likely to remain the case given that...

An El Niño in the second half of the year – as seems increasingly likely – would add to the upside pressures on food and energy prices stemming from the Iran war. The macroeconomic effects would be...