It would require a significant escalation from the measures seen so far for a trade war to be the trigger of the next global downturn. The bigger risks at this stage are that lower-level skirmishes...

After slowing sharply since the start of the year, we think that trade growth will lose further momentum in the coming months. But we doubt that there will be anything worse than a modest slowdown.

We broadly agree with the IMF’s latest growth projections for the world economy for next year, but we still think its forecasts are too optimistic for the US and too downbeat for the UK. And in...

The strong showing for Jair Bolsonaro and his party in yesterday’s general election in Brazil has increased the chances of pro-market reform. This is likely to prompt an initial rally in local markets...