We think that global GDP growth slowed to around 3% annualised in the third quarter and that it will weaken further over the next year or so as the US and Chinese economies lose momentum.

The news that Angela Merkel will step down as head of the CDU has limited implications for the German economy since she will stay on as Chancellor for now and her likely successors broadly support her...

Classic EM crises have caused waves, but have rarely triggered global downturns. And in any case the current risk of a 1980s-style EM crisis is low. The bigger risk is of a China ‘hard landing’ which...

We expect the Fed’s monetary policy tightening cycle, which is now well underway, to contribute to a slowdown in the US economy during 2019-2020. And tighter monetary policy may also trigger downturns...