What were downside risks to the global economy just a few days ago are fast morphing into our central scenario. We now expect global GDP to fall by about 1% this year, which would be twice the decline...

With central banks already having used up most of their ammunition, we are now reliant on governments to prevent the global recession from turning into something even worse. We are optimistic that the...

Travel and tourism is clearly one of the hardest hit sectors in the coronavirus crisis. In a realistic scenario where travel and tourism dropped by 50% for six weeks, annual global GDP growth would be...

There is much more that central banks could do to ease any strains that appear in financial markets. But with interest rates now more or less back to their effective lower bound in the US, euro-zone...