The idea that the Fed could pave the way for much lower policy rates by shrinking its balance sheet is unconvincing. Balance sheet reduction is a blunt tool for tightening financial conditions, and...

The build-up of US military forces in the Middle East has led to growing concerns about an attack on Iran and has pushed up oil prices. In light of these developments, we are re-sending this...

Our base case is that the recent bout of weakness in the US dollar will reverse. If it remains at its current level, the direct macro impact is likely to be small for most countries, especially...

Since December, investors’ year-end interest rate expectations have moved towards our own end-2026 policy rate forecasts for all major advanced economies. We think there is a bit further to go before...