This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and...

This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here...

The conflict in the Middle East threatens not only energy trade but also other trade flows, albeit to a lesser extent. The risk to container shipping is limited by the fact that the region was already...

In light of the escalating crisis in the Middle East, including the cessation of LNG production in Qatar, this Update provides broader context about global LNG trade and the implications for energy...