GDP contracted in the third quarter and there are downside risks to the outlook. As house prices are falling again, household debt is elevated and high interest rates are still feeding through, the...

In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary...

The larger-than-expected fall in inflation in November means it is becoming increasingly untenable for policymakers to claim that they are not even thinking about rate cuts. We are now pencilling in a...