With inflation falling rapidly, risks are tilted towards the RBNZ cutting rates sooner than Q3, as we’re currently predicting.

The new cap on international student visas is another reason to expect population growth to slow sharply. That will give the Bank of Canada confidence that CPI rent inflation will ease later this year...

EM GDP growth weakened over the second half of 2023, and we expect growth to remain subdued this year. Some EMs that underperformed last year will see modest recoveries, but many of the economies...

Central banks will probably continue to push back on expectations of rate cuts at their scheduled policy announcements in the coming weeks. But with inflation and wage pressures clearly moderating, we...