The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.3% y/y, in March will not be enough to sway the SARB from starting its easing cycle.

The smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March (BoE and consensus 3.1%, CE 3.0%) and drop in the core rate from 4.5% to 4.2% (consensus and CE 4.1%) raises the...

Although the Q1 CPI print was a touch stronger than we had predicted, we still expect inflation to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band by Q3. However, given uncertainties around the inflation...