The recent upturn in activity and employment growth and the resilience of core inflation suggest that the Fed won't start cutting interest rates until later this year. But although it is taking a...

On the face of it, core disinflation seems to have stalled or even reversed in the US but not in Europe, suggesting that Fed cuts will come much later than those by the ECB and BoE. However, there are...

Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at a country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last...